Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 3.685487 4.429909 5.261578 6.255982 7.408813 8.699317 10.249167
2025-03-09 2.594062 3.531511 4.690976 6.215586 8.150847 10.507401 13.573720
2025-03-16 1.943274 2.947147 4.301198 6.227692 8.858762 12.282043 17.019963
2025-03-23 1.500725 2.507661 3.974005 6.207211 9.451612 13.910799 20.400081
2025-03-30 1.128484 2.069804 3.543772 5.934850 9.609412 14.913402 22.980732
2025-04-06 0.911524 1.818296 3.332735 5.928435 10.114172 16.410932 26.347175
2025-04-13 0.739229 1.598796 3.125125 5.879188 10.521321 17.771511 29.596265
2025-04-20 0.659267 1.527548 3.150962 6.207695 11.549901 20.150228 34.552638
2025-04-27 0.577142 1.432065 3.113638 6.413413 12.383846 22.275810 39.258142
2025-05-04 0.519849 1.374219 3.134444 6.719782 13.410794 24.781989 44.734366
2025-05-11 0.438249 1.242982 2.987609 6.687900 13.826640 26.291146 48.671475
2025-05-18 0.352909 1.080548 2.746769 6.435523 13.803817 27.034872 51.361454
2025-05-25 0.278149 0.925253 2.496274 6.134828 13.670526 27.598553 53.834528
2025-06-01 0.235743 0.843620 2.396364 6.134468 14.117332 29.233928 58.289737
2025-06-08 0.201602 0.775194 2.314513 6.160415 14.615966 30.997329 63.084721
2025-06-15 0.170960 0.707506 2.221018 6.145055 15.023870 32.614244 67.709606
2025-06-22 0.135392 0.610930 2.032230 5.876736 14.863359 33.120239 70.301156
2025-06-29 0.115316 0.560356 1.957081 5.870967 15.268694 34.757289 75.115134
2025-07-06 0.097100 0.509547 1.870352 5.822340 15.570326 36.203025 79.642261
2025-07-13 0.091455 0.506688 1.925317 6.148188 16.758106 39.530176 88.013779
2025-07-20 0.083192 0.489881 1.934240 6.352232 17.678571 42.359785 95.550629
2025-07-27 0.077885 0.484262 1.977757 6.656092 18.862076 45.811409 104.501894
2025-08-03 0.066494 0.445515 1.904738 6.624474 19.230359 47.552047 110.092166